. Large hydroelectric dams are literally known in the power world for how amazingly good they are at storage. And regarding Bitcoin as currency, it is already not usable as that TODAY. Or? Do we really want a place where youre either an Amazonian or Walmartian? Index fund investing is both the simplest and the highest performing way to invest your money. Because the banking system is corrupt and big government cant watch over it? Its not an investment. I really would hope that MMM doesnt sell out like most social influencers but regardless not understanding the technology is no excuse for spreading fear, uncertainty and doubt about it. Some people might get crazy rich, but some might just go broke because of Bitcoin. Guess what, we can automate all of those jobs with cryptocurrencies. However, Bitcoin is one of the least performing major cryptocurrencies, so lets not talk about fucking Bitcoin all the time just because the price of one unit is in the thousands. But sometimes they do. Research Ethereum further. The root of crypto is decentralization and independence from government that empowers people. Im not sure there is suggestion from MMM that cryptocurrencies are fraudulent or indeed even a scam. It also helps to have wise, centralized humans (the Federal Reserve system and other central banks) guiding the system. Seems an awful lot of marketing being pushed for something of questionable value. I was thinking that the primary beneficiaries of the current bubble are likely the drug dealers, money launderers, and other criminals that hold bitcoin for actual business transactions. Returns are down and all that cash needs to go somewhere. Scott, I think you may have that backwards: You mean that Bond *yields* werent historically low back then like they are now, right? It has been made ground up to be censorship resistant and has been thriving for past 8 years despite singular opposition from every quarter. However, there are a couple things you are wrong about here, and are worth commenting on. I can trade with anyone in the world for a low price (not necessarily with bitcoin as the price has gotten expensive but with other currencies). There is no reliable way to track or trace paper. As soon as I read you were selling a bag of your nail clippings for $100, I thought to myself that is a great deal! January 2, 2018, 7:05 pm. January 2, 2018, 7:09 pm. And it gets worse: Some large, popular components of the S&P have a PE of closer to 300, meaning it would take 300 years to earn back your initial investment. South Koreans are NOT moving all their currency in to Bitcoins. Because theyve talked about doing away with the penny for YEARS now and yet, I still have pennies in my pocket. I had no idea the market capitalization of Bitcoin and the other crypto-currencies are so high. I believe this is currently the second longest expansion in US history. While cryptos are new, they also dont meet the needs of traditional cash flow analysis but for a new asset class but just because its new doesnt mean its a bad idea. We dont need to prey on their consumerism also. Your highly emotional responses arent helping your case. I even read about these things for fun, with Simon Singhs The Code Book and the Neil Stephenson novel Cryptonomicon being particularly fun shortcuts to pick up some of the workings and the context of cryptography. January 3, 2018, 8:02 am. MentalArson https://www.statista.com/statistics/326707/bitcoin-price-index/. If you're careful to invest in an altcoin that has a clear value proposition (ripple comes to mind) you can set it and check once a day at most. Personally, I think this article shows that Mr Adeney has had his blog hijacked by the Anti-satoshi ;). January 4, 2018, 9:20 am. Just imagine if an universal decentralised currency becomes the worlds reserve currency! But since the formula is open and free, other companies would quickly come out with their own cancer pills. Im not so sure youre right about mining them though, especially if you mine with computer hardware that you already have. Its speculation, pure and simple. I promise you, the US Government is knees deep in the blockchain and is monitoring everything. Or when I have to go to the grocery store to buy milk and theres the sign that says NO POWER, CASH ONLY and my toddler is crying for milk, Im going to pay them in cash. Reply. The price went on a historic and seemingly unstoppable run all the way to $150 per barrel in 2008. Gold has the 2 most important properties to make it function as money, scarcity and intrinsic value. So I did learn a bit about locking and unlocking information, hacking, and ensuring that independent brains (whether they are two adjacent CPUs on a circuit board or two companies negotiating across the Pacific) can trust each other and coordinate their actions in lockstep. Why not one of the other 1500 cryptocurrencies? Thats what happens when a real bonafide bubble bursts. Cryptocurrency could be the proverbial cure for cancer, but if its made illegal or heavily regulated through prudent or reactionary legislation (YMMV) it doesnt really matter, does it? The big players in China use hydroelectric power. That is why our civilization used that rather than perishables or iron. Its a speculation, pretty much like buying gold. So right there you can scratch off any use of blockchain as pointless if it doesnt benefit from immutability. Publicly verifiable voting as well, when the chains are worth trillions. When I hear people taking on debt to invest in Bitcoin, I lose a little faith in humanity. This is the greatest use of human energy and capital the world has ever seen. Because I think they dont want to devalue the money too fast. Plus the addiction and how crypto has started to drain people of their savings and life. Real investments require production and income. Now the ball has reached proportions where it could blow up anytime, and people in this forum are talking about the small change like the bubble and P/E ratio in the stock market. This is the same exact dynamic as tulip bulbs: Do tulip bulbs have a value? Do something useful with your money. Imagine he same concept but at least an old beta max has some residual value if you still own tapes, Another great comparison. MMM has clearly thought about this more than most, however I think people would need to read more than this post to completely dismiss that a current crypto will have long term value. . Bitcoin has a deflationary nature, its only logical to pay you in $100 non-bitcoin bucks that are racing with the inflation rate of the Feds printing machine instead. When my daughter asked what you could do with brick dust, the kids looked at her like she was an idiot and said, Well, buy more brick dust, of course.. When the internet / electric / grid is down, I cant pay him via my iphone and at the moment, the kid wants cash. Cryptocurrencies are the key to humanitys survival. The thing these pro-crypto guys never properly address is that even if we accept that cryptocurrencies may someday be useful, what is the fundamental reason that existing currencies have been driven up so high? Bitcoin didnt fly off the charts until a couple of months ago, after (maybe) finding itself in the perfect storm to take a bubble to biblical proportions. But again, this is not investment but speculation! Why? As the legend goes, an anonymous developer published this whitepaper in 2008 under the fake name Satoshi Nakamoto. Use it or lose it. The behavior of bitcoin since the genesis block has been completely different. If not, you may want to think about selling. Also, I wonder the extent of whispering in their ears & kick backs they could/likely do get. Yes, it is insane to value something highly solely because other people might value it. Yes. The reason that people have never owned their own money as you inelegantly put it, is because there is no full faith and credit under this model. I mentioned very specific problems with BTC/ETH. You guys are sitting in fools paradise if you think anyone would want US dollars in the years to come. They grew pretty flowers that we enjoy looking at. Then you have to pay a ton of interest to borrow it, and be lucky with the timing. They probably also didnt like my stated aversion to cyptocurrency and desire to stick with boring real estate. Even though it really is nothing but cyber reality. It just means that some price levels are reasonable, and some are not. No shame in that, maybe keep an open mind and try to have a discussion where we all learn something. Same wishes to you on your toilet paper fiat money my friend. nVidia shares, purchased right after they were found liable in some court case and thus were a bit depressed, were some fantastic shovel sellers for me these last few years :), Dan Someone I am already looking forward to looking back and laughing at all the companies who did away with their normal businesses to become mining companies. Hi Financialindependence.. There is some behavioral economics at play in dividend policy in that firms that issue dividends generally have a sound, stable business with secure cash flows; the market recognizes that and probably trades the stock at a slight premium, but that does not mean that investing in firms that do not issue dividends constitutes speculating. Big ERN just recommended me to your blog and now I see that you beat me to the joke I just made. Theres no way I could have paid down my debt and netted $14.5k in stocks in less than a year with less than $5k in capital. January 3, 2018, 12:41 pm. Most of us, especially in the US and Europe, are free and are allowed to accumulate wealth through education and hard work. I have to disagree with one of your points here: in a worst-case scenario, if you have enough gold, you may be able to beat it between some rocks to make a serviceable frying pan. They are set at the margin, by the marginal buyer. Transactions takes as long as for banks (and soon banks will do trasnfers in seconds too, the real life tests have already started) and cost MORE. Anyway, what would he dump it for? I dare you to look it up! Thats fairly over the top. As of now, BTC has none of those characteristics. A lot of stocks never pay dividends though. Iota and RaiBlocks use something different than the blockchain to make each user a miner by requiring each transaction to verify other transactions which prevents transaction fees. Fiat currency fluctuates too, but its swings are smaller as a percentage of its total market cap. MentalArson Mr. Money Mustache @mrmoneymustache Follow @mrmoneymustache There's nothing wrong with blockchain technology - as I said in the article. Speculation is great. Blockchain isnt just a software protocol, the algorithm guiding it doesnt have to be open source, some cryptoassets pay the miners for securing the network through concepts such as proof of stake and delegated byzantine fault tolerance, some networks support decentralized applications with actual potential and have intrinsic value. Mr. Money Mustache is another veteran personal finance blogger. Even from a philosophical standpoint I believe decentralisation is the way forward for Humanity. Its clear from reading the comments that most people dont understand how this works. If you want to continue the ride, why not let the original investment of $28,000 ride? No doubt it will crash but I think it still has room to go. Satoshi, while extreme in his views, watched the housing market collapse due to the fraudulent behavior of the banks and the government that backs them. Scott Nicholson I couldnt find anything indicating countries are using bitcoin as a reserve currency. First: cryptocurrencies have not demonstrated lack of manipulation. Ask me Anything! youre supposed to pay taxes on gains in crypto too . But yes, I would not invest in crypto currency. 8. Blockchain is just a computer protocol, which allows two people (or machines) to do transactions even if they dont trust each other or the network between them. Well said, Bill. I was hoping that when bitcoin futures became a real thing, Id be able to short it in a more normal way. Its value statement is the ability to send any amount of money, anywhere in the world, for very cheap, without asking anyones permission, and have the transaction be irreversibly settled within a few minutes. 2 Billion unbanked people on the planet to also enjoy a level playing field through this new Internet of Money. When evaluating investment bubbles, it means looking at where everyone is throwing their money no matter how many billions and being willing to say Bull. Retweeted. Either one will get your CAPE ratio back into whack. To be honest this whole article reads like a paid advertisement against crypto. Like a piece of a profitable business or a rentable piece of real estate. obsolete. You will not own your money more with virtual currencies. Lastly, once KYC and AML is figured out, I have a hard time understanding why people would even want to use paper fiat instead of a digital fiat. If you dont have fiat money to buy the bitcoin then someone is going to have to start getting paid in btc. Note that if you remove any of these essential elements, youve made the system effectively worthless. I think in five years bitcoin will pretty much disappear. Overall, it is just as likely to go up as it is down, especially in the near term, and is best to avoid all together unless you just love gambling and dont care about losing money. No, I am more inclined to trust economic models where the rules are clearly defined and cannot be changed, by anyone, ever. Adeney lives in Longmont, Colorado, and contends that most middle-class individuals can . So, I PayPald you the $100 for your fingernail clippings before I got to the part about them going for $70,000. My Take: Cryptocurrencies have A LOT of problems currently. Profit! months) so other storage mechanisms are needed. God speed my friend. But coincidentally, after I got my computer engineering degree I ended up specializing in security and encryption technologies for most of my career. It will NEVER happen. When I started to feel some FOMO, I know we have to be close to peak interest. Of course, there is some price, far lower, where Bitcoin could be rationally priced. What value is there? Im not sure why the author is so angry at people who speculate. Its like saying they are investing in lottery tickets. They may settle to much less, or get close to zero, or they may grow more, no one can really predict this. Not likely, bitcoin mining farms are in China because of the cheaper energy costs. This is no different from rich wall street people and government controlling fiat currency.. Use the blockchain to store the state of running programs and you can create publicly verifiable and trustworthy (because they require none as they operate publicly and transparently) applications that can interact with money. Why would the author call this act stupid? A large proportion of other coins are long term holds. Of course, I doubt we are already at the 10%. But my preferred broker, Interactive Brokers, doesnt allow shorting Bitcoin futures (the founder of IB seems very anti-bitcoin in general). Even if they made a hundred trillion dollars next year, you wouldnt see any of it unless you sold your stock to someone willing to pay a higher price for it (or they started paying dividends). It also could be a bubble, but the crypto billionaires (the few or the hundreds who end up winning) will still need to buy their Doritos and Gameboys and lambos and helicopters, and Ill own shares in those companies no matter which currency is used. Bitcoin has its flaws and needs to improve as you mentioned: So, how is Bitcoin better or different? This is to be expected for a revolutionary new technology. Let me know which one consumes more energy overall? For instance, I believe I bought tulip bulbs for my wife at a price around $1 a bulb, and we were quite happy with them. Alright then, do you have all your money invested in cryptocurrencies? Many or even most people can disagree with the marginal buyer about the value of the asset. January 10, 2018, 11:01 am. Poor people have never initiated a tax loophole. Smoking brings zero value to society, only net negative. Does that mean investing in Berkshire Hathaway is speculating? January 11, 2018, 12:03 am. That said, Im still not so sure. Nothing is promised. I dont care either way about bitcoin and am not even sure why hydro comes into the discussion, but you cant say something so blatantly 180 degrees false and expect not to be corrected! Market prices are not set by consensus. January 2, 2018, 6:23 pm. Brent Weaver 0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes. They seem less wise and more credentialed. We save up our purchases. I dont get the whole thing where people think fiat currency is just useless paper and then turn to gold. With cryptocurrencies, you are literally betting that world governments, the G20, all major banks, The United Nations, financial institutions, exchanges, Elon Musk, Warren Buffett, and all existing fiat currencies will change as radically as retail shopping has in the past 25 years. Its a complete rip off. Thats why wind farms are much more economical in areas with large scale hydro. Say I trade you a car for 1 bitcoin on Jan 8. I have these lovely tulip bulbs for sale, please PM me. Even some cryptocurrencies that currently exist. Is it speculation, sure, but its no different that speculating on the future price of a stock, or oil, or the rental market. The response was amazing and, unfortunately, there were simply to many to include them all. I just hope my tax dollars arent used to bail these folks out. You could grow more bulbs indefinitely. December 10, 2018, 5:45 pm, Dang! Not the only reason, but if earnings dont pan out, stock prices wont necessarily drop. However, in 2004 when Facebook was being launched it was looked at as a funny little friend site. The world is changing which many westerners cannot see. Yes there is. The reason Bitcoin has been driven so high is because its a limited supply. I wonder why. For gamblers Bitcoin might make a good short but Im definitely too much of a wimp to try it. You can keep saying its a bubble for eternity. Ignore this utterly irrational FUD and embrace the digital world. Check out RaiBlocks and other DAG-based coins. But boy, are you wrong on this one. Inexpensive computers thousands of times more powerful than the best you could buy for $10K in 1990. Agree, the valuation of these cryptocurrencies are out of whack. I know have around $20k in crpyto having invested around $3500. Or physical goods if you want to use it to record land or vehicle deeds, etc. 2) Volatility the market cap of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is small compared to that of fiat currencies. Its interesting that you state the high water mark was $700,000, but now its $500k. As platforms. Holy cow, its wasting that much energy Vijay? . (based on July 20th blog post) Started by caracarn. Bingo, so far you are the only one that stated the true value of any nation backed currency, notably the USD. drugs, prostitution, gambling, etc.) We still need banks for other forms of financial services such as loans, investments, business services, etc.. Will Bitcoin replace that, too? Basic Economics Vijay. Right now, I think that this space allows people to be their own VC. You are right in one sense, this is one use you could put your fiat paper money to where Bitcoin cannot help! Im more inclined to trust contracts that cannot be broken. We end up in Utopia? Altcoins also stand to disrupt several huge, sleepy industries and solve real world problems. The Vigilante Is it possible youre confusing the message of this article? How much of your net worth is in this investment? 7 Replies 594 Views February 10, 2023, 11:49:28 AM by index: Bonds funds vs stable value funds. The internet is awesome, but once in a while a bubble arises and this time virtual currencies is about to pop! Except for ripple coin. Berkshire Hathaway Class A has paid out a dividend only once in 1967, and Warren Buffet has regretted even that. Bubbles or Tulip Mania as you put it dont do what bitcoin has done since its inception in 2009. This has happened with EVERY speculative event throughout recent history. Bigger bulb, vs smaller, vs healthy, vs rotted. Yes, it is true that bonds are *also* in a bubble at the present timeand that the bond bubble is so big that it makes stocks look relatively cheap by comparison. For fun, I try to gauge how bad is the Fear of missing out is and how that corresponds to a peak. To most of the Internet, Mr. Money Mustache is known as the quirky early retirement financial guy, and this is a blog about Money. You keep spouting off nonsense. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, and maybe everyone that posts here about how wonderful Bitcoin is will be minted a Bitcoin millionaire and will lock in those profits can we remain sane and humble on the other side? Bond *prices* are higher than ever today, which is the reciprocal of them having a high yield. Lady Dividend Mr. Money Mustache January 3, 2018, 9:04 pm. Try doing one thing the Banks dont want you to do, or the regimes in half the worlds countries dont want you to do, and you will know how financially ruined you will be! Currency is by far the most obvious application. They said they are going to ban it, but there was such public outcry the government just backed off and now says they are still discussing the matter! Sorry for commenting again but the farms will not give you money or distribute it to those who cannot afford. Mr. Mustache. Your turn to supply real numbers. ), bastringue babysitting, lawn mowing, snow shoveling, etc..) So, how is Bitcoin replacing that? An Interview with Matt Cutts: Can the Government grow a Money Mustache? And yet this is exactly whats happening with Bitcoin. An Aside: Why should we listen to you, Mustache? MMM i normally love your articles but you knew this one would be polarizing Im sure. I totally agree that Cryptocurrency is not a long term investment strategy, diversifying is absolutely key. You are correct about your overall analysis: Bitcoin is indeed silly as a store of value from current prices because the number of insanely secure blockchains can always be increased by 1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fw3WkySh_Ho. 2) lots of other things are used as a store of value (paintings, etc) Almost everyone will have access to a mobile phone and network in a decade which is when I expect brick and mortar banks to collapse completely! Blockchain may be the future, but that doesnt mean any of the current currencies will be worth anything. If that is the case, their values are strictly driven by speculative bidding, making them the worst sort of investment. January 3, 2018, 7:32 am. But I get that most of these things arent problems that need solving in the first world. In the US we call it the full faith and credit of the United States. Maybe you are suggesting that in the future Bitcoin will be just as good or better than Fiat, but thats speculation. if they dont open one day, the fragile world crumbles. So theres a positive feedback loop here. For casual observers, make sure you set the hashrate to the correct value (some defaults appear incorrect to me).. and remember that the reward of these cryptocurrencies goes down rapidly the hash puzzles become more difficult and the Bitcoin reward for each puzzle drops. Bitcart.io takes DASH. Ive personally stayed away having learned these lessons in a past life. Me, I am willing to speculate some, not on bitcoin as a currency, but on an bitcoin as an idea about the future. Marketed to unsophisticated investors as a get-rich-quick scheme. This article seems ranty/irrational. Individuals getting rich off speculation doesnt mean its not speculation. Hard to shove a tulip bulb through the wires, eh? Your question was answered. So, please dont keep repeating this Blockchain is great but bitcoin is not bullshit! And nothing that can go on forever, does. Now, with that moral sermon out of the way, we might as well talk about why Bitcoin has become such a big thing, so we can separate the usefulness of the underlying technology called Blockchain, from the mania about how people have turned Bitcoin it into a big dumb lottery. The real winners of the gold rush were the ones who sold shovels. Right now if bitcoin enjoys the lead, what is there to call it stupid. You are just parroting what every novice tells about Money. Doubly so because it is now so broken by its development team that it is perhaps the only cryptocurrency that I know of that doesnt even work as currency. Mr. Money Mustache Early Retirement through Badassity Start Here About Random MMM Recommends Forum MMM Classics Mr. Money Mustache View: Fancy Magazine | Classic Blog Welcome New Readers! That is why I also invest in government bonds. Because of this, newspapers start reporting on prices daily, triggering so many tales of instant riches that you notice even your barber and your massage therapist are offering tips on how to invest in this new asset class. For the first time in history, a machine can own money and make its own purchases. This is Part 1 of 2. No one controls it, so no one can rewrite the data. The worlds governments are not going to let everyone start trading money anonymously and evading taxes using Bitcoin. Keep plenty for yourself. MMMers have unplugged from debt, but putting all faith in the designers of The Matrix seems ironic. The sensible-sounding ones will say, Sure the G20 nations all have stable financial systems, but Bitcoin is a lifesaver in places like Venezuela where the government can vaporize your wealth when you sleep., The harder-core pundits say Even the US Federal Reserve is a bunch a CROOKS, stealing your money via INFLATION, and that nasty Fiat Currency they issue is nothing but TOILET PAPER!!. Those who are in it are using it for speculative purposes, not as a currency. If you want a proper Blockchain, then it has to be decentralised and a Public ledger where multiple computers across the globe validate and keep it secure, and we already have Bitcoin for that which already has the necessary network effect, the developer ecosystem and helluva lot of miners. Of its total market cap just recommended me to the part about going. If Bitcoin enjoys the lead, what is there to call it the faith... 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